- Rule #1: Nobody knows what the future will bring.
- Rule #2: Knowing what you now know, determine the single best immediate step forward for this moment. Don’t worry about two weeks, two months, or six months from now. The next step after that will reveal itself.
Expert future predictions are futile as we are discovering daily. The February consensus among economists was that there was little risk of a 2020 US recession. Within a matter of days, the stock market dropped by 30%. The skyrocketing US unemployment is now projected to reach a staggering 32%.
We live in a fast-changing world. 12 hours today feel like how two weeks felt just a month ago. Everything in this post will be outdated by tomorrow. It will be ancient by the end of next week, and entirely incorrect in a month from now.
The vast number of expert models and predictions might turn out to be way off the mark. On March 26 it was projected that by April 1st, there would be 50,000 hospitalizations in New York. Only five days later on April 1st, the actual number was 12,000. We are in uncharted territory and we simply don’t know enough about all variables that can affect the outcome.
Here is Hawaii’s current projection as of 4.6.2020:
And for the US:
You can check all other state’s projections including deaths per day and total deaths here.
Today, as well as in a year from now, some will complain that the US should have shut down the economy much earlier to save precious lives.
On March 31, 2020, leading scientists estimated the virus could kill between 100,000 and 240,000 in the US alone.
If the fatalities turn out to be less, then some will complain that shutting down the economy was overreacting and unnecessary. Could less drastic steps have sufficed?
Any loss of human life is tragic. How much loss would be acceptable? Relative to what?
“When a man sits with a pretty girl for an hour, it seems like a minute. But let him sit on a hot stove for a minute—and it’s longer than an hour. That’s relativity.” ~ Albert Einstein
Human nature tends to discount the need for inconvenient measures, perhaps even more after those measures succeed. Will hindsight be 2020?
The final number of COVID-19 fatalities in comparison with today’s projections might be an indicator if the measures were indeed necessary or not, except we might never know the true effectiveness of the current measures. There are some still debating today to what extend the massive economic stimulus package and bailouts during the financial crisis averted a more dire outcome.
We don’t need to be A/B testing the effectiveness of wearing a parachute when skydiving, or A/B testing the effectiveness of wearing a seat belt when driving in traffic. Keep it simple. We already know the answer. In doubt, it’s better to be safe than sorry. Better to wear a mask when buying groceries.
“When you change the way you look at things the things you look at change.” ~ Wayne Dyer
Because of rule number #1 above, we should simply use common sense and cautiously follow rule #2:
Practice ‘physical’ distancing (social distancing is a misnomer). Reach out and safely engage, socialize and conduct business via Skype, Zoom, phone, and other communication tools. Stay home, but if you must leave, always wear a mask or at least a bandana or scarf when in public to protect others and yourself. Not sure what took so long to admit it. Masks have been working fine in Japan, China, and South Korea. We will get used to it, just like wearing a seat belt. Wash your hands and avoid touching your face. Practice healthy habits and maintain a strong immune system. Get 8 hours of quality sleep, eat nutritious quality foods and exercise regularly. I rediscovered jump rope, blurpees, and pull-ups in my closet. You already know the drill.
Let’s all find ways to stay healthy and prevent the further spread of the virus.
Nobody knows how long this might take, but slowly, as if a curtain gets pulled to the side, some patterns are emerging.
The Beginning Of The End Of The Pandemic
Despite rule #1 above, I have a curious mind and knowledge can lead to making better decisions. This university research paper analyzed the top 36 countries and 50 US states affected by COVID-19 as of 3/30/2020. Here is a summary of the findings:
“Any moderation or slowdown has so far been due only to aggressive intervention. Countries take an average of about three weeks to act. However, even aggressive intervention does not show immediate results. Countries take an average of about three weeks to moderate, four weeks to control, and over 6 weeks to contain the spread of the disease, after aggressive intervention. Substantial differences exist between large and small and Asian and European countries in time to act. Using these findings, we predict the likely dates of moderation and control for specific countries and States of the US.”
The paper defines the following measurable benchmark targets:
- Moderation: The growth rate stays below 10%.
- Control: The growth rate stays below 1%.
- Containment: The growth rate stays below 0.1%.
This is the most telling graph:
Hawaii dodged a bullet. With 10 Million annual visitors from all corners of the world, Hawaii could have easily become the new epicenter like New York. On 3.25.2020, and not day to early, Hawaii mandated a stay-at-home order. Any new visitors are subject to an automatic 14-day quarantine period upon arrival. Tourism is effectively shut down.
I learned from a doctor at Queen’s hospital that as of 4.5.2020, Hawaii now has a COVID-19 speed test capability of 100 tests per day. Speed tests in Hawaii return results within 24 hours. I don’t know what the additional capabilities are for the regular slower test. Hawaii ranks in the top 10 states in the nation for tests done per state capita. (Total tests: 13,665; Tests per 1Mill population: 9,610; as of 4.6.2020)
Could we have Abbot Labs’ new 15-minute testing machines at airports with mandatory tests before boarding an airplane? This will reduce anxieties and restore airline travel and tourism.
“We don’t see things as they are; we see them as we are.” — Anaïs Nin
QE – Infinity
The US economy was effectively put in a coma. This has never been done before and bringing back the patient will be a learn-as-we-go process. QE1, QE2, and QE3 (2008 to 2013) were nothing compared to what we got today.
Meet QE-Infinity. In a concerted effort, the US and other world governments have committed to do whatever it takes to prevent an economic collapse and ensure a speedy recovery. On March 26, 2020, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell announced that the Federal Reserve would provide essentially unlimited lending to support the economy as long as it is damaged by the outbreak.
The Fed does not want to see a repeat of a prolonged great recession. US unemployment is currently shooting through the roof like never before. However, tenant evictions and foreclosures as a result of COVID-19 are currently being halted. Mortgage payment deferral arrangements are being implemented for 3 to 12 months. In essence, the government wants to assure you: “we got your back.”
During the financial crisis, nobody knew if this was going to turn into a lasting depression or if the massive stimulus would lead to hyperinflation. Looking back, almost like magic, the seemingly impossible tightrope walk worked out remarkably well resulting in the longest sustained and steady economic expansion in US history.
There are thousands of moving parts in a modern aircraft and many possibilities for a plane to crash. Still, I board an airplane with the full expectation for a safe and smooth landing. – Have faith and relax. If each one of us is doing their part, the economic fallout as a result of COVID-19 will magically dissolve.
Move Forward And Be Kind
Hanlon’s Razor states that “we should not attribute to malice what is adequately explained by stupidity.”
It’s not your fault, nor anyone else’s.
You are not the only one that was inadequately prepared. The entire world was caught by surprise. Forgive yourself, your boss, partner, neighbor, mayor, governor, and every world leader. Do the best with what you got and take it one step at a time. Be the role model for your tribe.
Our ancestors survived the plague and the Spanish flu without ever finding a vaccine. The odds are infinitely better for us today to overcome COVID-19 and the ensuing economic fallout. Focus on rule #2.
Hawaii Real Estate – The New Normal
Cliffhanger. .
Currently editing. Check back in a couple of days for updates.
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